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Posts Tagged ‘Measurement’
None of those things are observable
An interesting article, The STEM Crisis Is a Myth by Robert N. Charette.
For years I have been hearing about the STEM shortage but every time I look at the employment and salary numbers, all I see is the market functioning normally. People with STEM degrees and functioning in a STEM capacity in a STEM field are always in demand and their average compensation, as the article points out, has been fairly steady.
Granted, there are emergent fields, unique circumstances, and pressing needs that will suddenly create a temporary demand for those with a very particular STEM skill set, but the market functions, more people move in or specialize in the hot area and pretty soon things are back to normal. Also granted that the best people in any one of the STEM fields can command very high premiums over the novice. You might not like having to pay $150,000 for an experienced ERP implementation manager and you might wish that they were cheaper but that does not necessarily mean that there is a shortage of experienced ERP implementation managers.
I think this is once again an issue arising from particular advocates wanting to use the coercive force of government to achieve individual objectives. Engineers too expensive, issue more green cards. Increased supply will reduce the cost.
Given all of the above, it is difficult to make a case that there has been, is, or will soon be a STEM labor shortage. “If there was really a STEM labor market crisis, you’d be seeing very different behaviors from companies,” notes Ron Hira, an associate professor of public policy at the Rochester Institute of Technology, in New York state. “You wouldn’t see companies cutting their retirement contributions, or hiring new workers and giving them worse benefits packages. Instead you would see signing bonuses, you’d see wage increases. You would see these companies really training their incumbent workers.”
“None of those things are observable,” Hira says. “In fact, they’re operating in the opposite way.”
Read the whole thing.
To analyze does not necessarily mean to produce useful information
From Reviewing the Movies: Audiences vs. Critics by Catherine Rampell.
It is a fair and interesting question or set of questions. Do audiences and critics assess movies in different ways? If so, in what ways do they differ? Which views, audience or critics, provide a better forecast of future performance? These questions apply to art, sports, books, etc. There are answers to some of these questions. The general informed public and specialists do tend to review things differently. General informed public tend to factor in more context and larger macro considerations than do specialists. General informed public tend to be better forecasters than are specialists. Nate Silver covers a lot of this in his The Signal and The Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Don’t
What is notable is that Rampell asks a legitimate question and has an idea on how to answer the question. Her error is to use information that is available (Rotten Tomatoes Database) rather than information that is needed. There is a fairly detailed critique of her analysis in the comments. The article serves as an example of Selection Bias (the distortion of a statistical analysis, resulting from the method of collecting samples) and Information Bias (the tendency to seek information even when it cannot affect action), and possible Mere Exposure Bias (the tendency to express undue liking for things merely because of familiarity with them).